Key decisions and possibilities
What gets decided next, and what markets are paying for each outcome.
Rate decisions, trade deadlines, oil and the data calendar that move the loonie, the TSX and Canadian rates. Odds are shown only where a market trades with real volume. Prices, not forecasts.
Bank of Canada: odds of a hike
The decisions
Each card says what is decided, when, the plausible outcomes and how each would usually land on the loonie, the TSX and rates. Partisan election odds are left out on purpose.
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Oil and the Strait of Hormuz
IMF PortWatch. See the Strait of Hormuz card above for the market odds.Data calendar
Release dates from the official Statistics Canada, CMHC, CREA, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, US BLS, Finance Canada, USTR and bank investor relations schedules, checked 25 Oct 2026. Times are Montevideo (UTC-3). Rows marked expected are typical timing, not yet announced. Dates can move; the source link is the final word.
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